The track variant considers both the historical average time at the racetrack for the distance in question, called the "par time", and the average speed for the day in particular. For winning the Arkansas Derby (G1), Cyberknife earned a Brisnet Figure three points lower than Happy Jack did while being dusted in the Santa Anita Derby. } They both earned a Brisnet Rating of 111, which tie with Taibafor the best in the Derby. Typically, Kentucky Derby field horses post BSF around or over 90. According to the speed figures, Arkansas is the circuit to avoid in this year's Kentucky Derby. [14] Alysheba ran a 122 speed figure in his career. Below is the best and most recent BSF from each horse in the 2022 Kentucky Derby Field. In a rare circumstance, he would have been favored even if the Kentucky Derby winner, Rich Strike, was running in the Preakness. That's not about to change. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. He has had only three 3 starts and has yet to go beyond 1 1/16 miles. [2] Flightline earned a 126 speed figure in winning the 2022 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar Racetrack in 2022. Below well explore Kentucky Derby odds Beyer Speed Figure ratings. Click here to sign up for the daily PDF or alerts. He's advising bettors to consider speed figures and track conditions prior to wagering. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts.The winning figure for a race is based on three factors: the final time, the distance, and the inherent speed of the track (a calculation known as the track variant.) Sure, there are some extremely talented horses in the Longines Classic division including, among others, Hill n Dale Metropolitan Handicap winner Flightline, Pegasus World Cup victor Life Is Good, and Dubai World Cup Sponsored by Emirates Airline winner Country Grammer, but Olympiad has cemented his status as a top contender and a budding star for owners Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. In last year's Kentucky Derby, Medina Spirit posted a 102 Beyer Speed Figure when crossing the wire first. border: 1px solid #CCC; Taiba (+800) and Messier (+800) lead the group having posted 103s previously in Kentucky Derby Prep races. They have come in quite a bit behind their competition, too, with next-lowest belonging to Barber Road. Taiba won as much the best, again earning a Beyer figure north of 100. ** Get a $150 deposit match from AmWager + Daily Rewards**, Kentucky Derby prep: Gotham Stakes 2023 odds and analysis, Work tab: Cody's Wish drills for 1st time since Breeders' Cup win, Head to Head: Handicapping Fountain of Youth 2023, Romans wins weight battle, now looks to Fountain of Youth, Ky. Derby prep: 1 horse can beat Yakteen 5 in San Felipe. Trade. Speed figures are normalized numerical representations of final times based on relative track speeds, as it is rare for tracks to produce the exact final . When many people see the name of a champion sprinter as a sire, they think his best runners will be fast and precocious. Shancelot was trained by Jorge Navarro, whose years of doping horses under his care have been well documented. CLICK HERE TO SUBSCRIBE TO THE TDN FOR FREE! A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball. Overall, the 2022 Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster than the 2021 field. with a Beyer Speed Figure of 103, best of any contender and second fastest among 3-year-olds this year. Breeders Cup Promo - Get Up to $200 Back If Your First Bet Loses, Get Your First Single-Horse Win Wager Back, Register for DFS, receive a free NBA Entry. Jessica Morgan / Eclipse Sportswire. He was assigned a 103 Beyer Speed figure for that effort which is the highest in the field. The system behind the figures was explained in detail and popularized by Andrew Beyers book, Picking Winners, published in 1975. Still, Carrick was assigned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95, while Robert Bruce got a 102. 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card. Morello performed the worst last time out, surprisingly after winning his first three races. As of 02.26.23. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Here are the 19 highest Beyer figures for Saturday's races, with figures from Brisnet and TimeformUS where available. With a talented, 20-horse field expected to enter the starting gate, you NEED to see what racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir has to say before making any 2022 Kentucky Derby picks of your own. When that venture folded, Daily Racing Form incorporated the Figures into its past performances beginning in April, 1992. Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. Wudda U Think Now had the weekend's highest Beyer Speed Figure and Brisnet Speed Ratings after winning the black-type Hollie Hughes at Aqueduct on Saturday for his first stakes win in 14 career starts. While Beyer has also noted that "speed figures tell you how fast a horse ran in the past; they do not necessarily predict how it will run today," their use as a handicapping tool is premised on their ability to shed light on how a horse is likely to run in its next start. He also wanted a rating system that could compare horses at different distances and at all racetracks. Receive daily headlines, breaking news alerts, promotions, and much . table.tableizer-table { Beyer said that if his figures were around in 1973, Secretariat would have earned a 139 Beyer for his Belmont Stakes victory. (Coady Photography), A Closer Look at 2022 Breeders Cup Classic Hopeful Olympiad, Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, and LNJ Foxwoods. ECLIPSE AWARD EQUIBASE SPEED FIGURE LEADERS LISTS 2023. He was nearly in a walk when crossing the wire after completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.37. This page was last edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24 (UTC). In short, there is much reason for optimism as it pertains to Olympiad being effective at 1 miles in the Longines Classic Nov. 5 at Keeneland. If speed figures are correct, it could be more of the same in 2022. Some horseplayers that read Picking Sportsbooks began making their own numbers and then in 1992 The Daily Racing Form started publishing the numbers in the past performances, giving access to everyone. Young horses improve with time, typically at a rate of a point per month, so a par for 3-year-old $20,000 claimer could not be accurate in both January and December. Beyer Speed Figures (BSF) is a common metric used to handicap horse racing and contextualize how well a horse ran in a given race. Speightstown has enjoyed success as a sire on dirt and turf and with sprinters as well as longer-distance runners. Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. } We might not have seen the best from Secret Oath and Creative Minister, who have shown they can run competitivefigures while they continue to improve. Early Voting's 122 TimeformUS number and Mo Donegal's 121 figure are the third and fourth best in the field. The Beyer Speed Figure specifically does not consider other variables such as the early pace or traffic problems a horse may have faced during a given race. Crown Pride hails from Japan while Summer Is Tomorrow, despite a Kentucky breeding, has been racing in Dubai. The Beyer team felt justified for putting the older horse's time in context with the pace and level of the race. 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline ( Tapit) is really, really, fast . Before you place your wagers on the Derby, youll want the skinny on the horses. 'TDN Rising Star' Flightline (Tapit) is really, really, fast. [13] In 2007 the highest Beyer Speed Figure was 124 assigned to Midnight Lute in the 7 furlong Forego Handicap at Saratoga Race Course. In 1991, The Racing Times, an upstart newspaper founded by Steven Crist, put Beyer Speed Figures into print for the first time. His 120 was the highest number recorded since Quality Road earned a 121 in 2011. It has sold approximately 200,000 copies, has been translated into Japanese and Korean, and is still in print after 44 years. We knew Olympiad was fast - he set a new track record of 1:42.01 for 1 1/16 miles at Fair Grounds in winning the Mineshaft Stakes in February - but watching him press a fast pace in the Stephen Foster and still finish with a final eighth of a . With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. Signup and get a $200 deposit bonus! Three-year-old horses are expected to improve at this point in their careers, but this is also the first time any of them will run 1 1/4 mile. At Belmont Park, maiden special weight races for older horses have a par of 87. Pars for Beyer Speed Figures represent the approximate average winning figure for a given class at a given track. Odds are estimates, as the opening morning line odds will not be released by Churchill Downs until the post position draw a few days before the first Saturday in May. Creating these figures is the result of a very complex process that involves mathematical formulas and judgment calls . She turned in one of the best Beyer Speed Figures of any 2-year-old in 2021, and her 92 Beyer in the Honeybee Stakes last month was considerably better than Un Ojo's 84 in winning the Rebel . In the only . Olympiad, with Junior Alvarado in the irons, rolled to a 2 -length victory in the July 2 Stephen Foster Stakes at Churchill Downs, his fifth win in a row to start off 2022. In two of that year's Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. The first published work on creating speed-figures was E.W. . No specifics, he said. Follow TheLines on Twitter for complete 2022 Kentucky Derby coverage. Each week, we will analyze the top maiden winners by Beyer performances. With the way things are looking, it seems like Epicenter has an excellent chance of winning the Kentucky Derby this year. These numbers reflect the relative strength of different racing circuits. Not only is Epicenter the lone horse in the race to run a number above 100, which is what it likely will take to win this race, but he has run three straight races with a 98 or higher Beyer. Only one horse has recorded a better Beyer speed figure than Flightline's 126 in the Pacific Classic, and none have matched his five-race string of excellence 105, 114, 118, 112, and 126. Beyer Speed Figures favor Epicenter, and it is not very close. The Beyer speed figure of 79 was solid if not spectacular, but the manner in which the win was accomplished - a stalking trip followed by a good late kick - suggests this colt will be perfectly suited by an extended sprint . The Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth Stakes , t Hallandale Beach, Fla. Trainers always are searchi Before handicapping the Grade 2, $400,000 San Feli History (1875-2022 Derby Results & Videos), Breeders' Cup Super Screener - Expert Picks. The only thing Sadler would commit to is that Flightline's next race will not be a sprint. If their calculations would produce a figure that defies logic (due to a timing error, or a sudden change in the condition of the track, for example) they will assign the race a figure that reflects the true ability of horses in the field. If speed figures are correct, it could be more of the same in 2022. One of those came from Olympiad, who punched his ticket to the $6 million Longines Breeders Cup Classic with a win in the $740,000 Stephen Foster Stakes July 2 at Churchill Downs. John doesn't need any help from us. From this work, using the same principle, Kovitz derived the beaten-lengths chart which Beyer published in Picking Winners. Welcome to 2022 Kentucky Derby Prospect Snapshots, where we'll take a look each week at a recent winner on the Triple Crown trail, usually from the Road to the Kentucky Derby schedule from which the . font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; Previewing the 2022 Kentucky Derby. The Beyer Speed Figure is calculated by looking at the final time and distance of the race, adjusted by the track variant, which is a measure of the inherent speed of the racetrack in question. You can then presume that he is faster than . Following a five-month intensive process, Beyer, with partner Matt Hopkins and colleague Randy Moss, all the speed figures for 2015 turf races have been updated. Periods of rain. Suite 100 Questions of general interest will be preferred for publication. Taiba broke his maiden with that impressive number in a six-furlong race on March 5. This is an example of using the top figure as a "power rating," or singular measure of a horse's ability. Why do we care? At 1 3/16 miles, its the longest Derby prep race, which is why the market looks extremely bullish on Epicenter. The first Saturday in May approaches, which means the Kentucky Derby is coming. If you are a casual sports fan getting ready to check out the Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown, you are going to hear plenty of talk about Beyer Speed Figures. 21+: TheLines.com and all content herein is intended for audiences 21 years and older. Below is a closer look at the career best Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Speed Figures for the North American contenders in the prospective 2022 Kentucky Derby field. The Stephen Foster was the fifth straight triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure for Olympiad in 2022. While Flightline is expected to have a more complete campaign next year than he did this year, don't expect him to run seven or eight times. According to the Daily Racing Form's Jay Privman, the 118 is the highest number given to any horse since Shancelot (Shanghai Bobby) got a 121 when winning the 2019 GII Amsterdam S. at Saratoga. He is recognized on the Joe Hirsch Honor Roll in the National Museum of Racing for excellence in turf writing. f: (732) 747-8955. Beyer Speed Figures express the most important factor in handicapping: how fast a horse has run in each of his starts. font-size: 12px; Beyer Speed Figures are a great tool. It is done, and has always been done, by human beingsBeyer and Mark Hopkins, and their six associates. That's the case for this year's Wood Memorial, where pacesetter Early Voting got a slightly higher TimeformUS Speed Figure than Mo Donegal. The best horses in the U.S. generally earn Beyer Speed Figures between 105 and 115. Pedigree: Olympiad is from the 13th crop of 2004 champion sprinter Speightstown, by Gone West. Sonora, CA (95370) Today. Their six associates involved in making figures include television commentator Randy Moss and long-time Philadelphia sports columnist Dick Jerardi, who have been with the business since its beginning. Belmont Stakes 2022 post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . Red Bank, NJ 07701, p: (732) 747-8060 Hence, their status as longshots. The latter calculation compensates for a racetrack running faster or slower than usual. Danzing Candy won the San Felipe at the same distance in 1:43.04. [23], As Beyer has noted, a speed figure is a numerical expression of a horse's final time, universalized for distance, track surface, and the daily variant on that surface. The Beyer Speed Figures business is a partnership of Beyer and Mark Hopkins. . When considering his chances to excel at 1 miles in the classic, Olympiad gets a nice stamina boost from the bottom half of his pedigree. Zozos joins Epicenter, Early Voting, Pioneer of Medina and Zandon as the only horses in the field whose speed figures have gone up each time they have run in each of the three categories. 7 Winners on Monday! Making just his third lifetime start after very impressive wins in a Santa Anita maiden and a Del Mar allowance, Flightline was tested for class in the Malibu, and couldn't have passed any more easily. The figures are straightforward: the greater the number, the quicker the horse. padding: 4px; Is Epicenter as much of a standout as he seems? He has run consecutive 101 numbers, which puts him behind four other Preakness probables. Belmont Stakes 2022: Post positions, morning line; We the People favored at 2-1. . In horse racing, power ratings are generally called class ratings. This makes them wild cards of sorts, with the odds estimate reflecting the uncertainty. Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. [8] It is noteworthy that Easy Goer's overall speed figures were substantially superior to principal rival Sunday Silence, despite Sunday Silence's slight three to one edge in their head-to-head races. Commentator, who once ran a 123 in his career, scored a 120 as a 7-year-old, possibly a record for a horse that old. Where and when, I don't know yet. Kentucky Derby 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. The par for the same class at Thistledown is 59. Through 02/26/2023. Preakness 2022: Who are the fastest contenders. Below we take a closer look at the Beyer Speed Figures, Brisnet Speed Ratings and TimeformUS Figures to determine his biggest threats. There's nothing written in stone, but I am mindful of the fact that I need to be careful.. MLB Odds: Will Twins Break Out Of Two-Year Slump? }. His Beyers have progressed from 70 to 88 to 98. Module One, GlobalFoundries, Wilschdorfer Landstrae 101, Dresden, 01109 Germany . } Simplification seems like the most likely horse to show up for the exotics. A Saratoga Springs-based racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker, Weir is a two-time qualifier for the prestigious National Horseplayers Championship in Las Vegas. Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best San Felipe Stakes Winners, Stars of Yesterday: Looking Back at Best Fountain of Youth Stakes Winners, Triple Crown Turning Point: The Right Rider for Gallant Fox, SLIDESHOW: U.S. [9][10][11] Easy Goer ran a 122 in winning the 1989 Belmont Stakes, the best Beyer Speed Figure in any Triple Crown race since these ratings were first published in 1987. Big South Tournament Odds: UNC Asheville, Longwood Knotted Atop Betting Market. Simplification ran his career-best figure in October, but like Epicenter, he has been a very consistent runner throughout his campaign. Taiba earned a 111 Brisnet rating in winning the Santa Anita Derby, the same number earned by both Mo Donegal and Early Voting, who were separated by just a neck when 1-2 in the Wood. He later was disqualified for a drug overage and runner-up Mandaloun was promoted to the win. Sell. GET OUR NEWSLETTER. Belmont Stakes 2022 field and odds. I believe the number for the Wood was inflated after it was compared to the Gazelle Stakes (G3) at the same distance on the same card. Call 1-800-GAMBLER if you have a gambling problem. Call 7032375030 for more information. The team that puts out the Beyer speed figure numbers made it official Monday morning. His Carter victory earned a career-high Beyer Speed Figure of 114. In Europe, Timeform has a similar rating scale that yields a number, but with a different value. 83. On the Beyer scale, the Santa Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood. 107. 2022 Kentucky Derby Field Beyer Speed Figures. The Beyer Speed Figures are an easy indicator to determine which horse will likely become the favorite to win in a race. Speed Figures: Nest's speed figures have improved dramatically in her last few starts. Used 2014 Audi A6 from Beyer Kia Falls Church in Falls Church, VA, 22046. OddsShark horse racing expert Michael Dempsey will be providing his selections and analysis for both the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby Day cards at turfnsport.com. In two of that years Kentucky Derby preps, Destin stopped the timer for the 1 1/16 miles of the Tampa Bay Derby in 1:42.82. Remember Ben with a gift to Thoroughbred aftercare, Subscribe for FREE to the Daily PDF or the News Alerts, Home Archive Shared News With A 118 Beyer, Flightline Heads Into 2022. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. The lists provide daily updates of the top Equibase Speed Figures earned in stakes races in support of the Eclipse Awards: 2-Year-Old Male 2-Year-Old Female 3-Year-Old Male. In 1992, Beyer began making turf figures, which were made more accurate by his adjustment of the beaten-lengths chart, in which he uses the six-and-a-half furlong beaten-lengths chart for all races at that distance or longer, to reflect the nature of turf racing, where horses jockey for position most of the way, and then sprint home with almost all of their energy in reserve, making the competitive part of the race more akin to a sprint than to the race's actual distance. For example, Messier posted a 98 Beyer in his most recent race but also has a 103 on his resume, indicating a consistent high-level performer. Donaldson's Consistent Handicapping Profits (1936), which was cited by Jerry Brown as the method on which the Ragozin and Brown "sheet" figures are based. The number of horses to run at least a 95 BSF is equal in the past two Derbies at nine apiece. . With a large field set to enter the starting gate on Saturday, want to see the horse racing predictions from racing insider and Beyer Speed Figure maker Bob Weir before making any 2022 Blue Grass . [22] However, Beyer also acknowledged that by some calculations, Count Fleet's Beyer speed figures might have reached 150. In 2019, Country House received the win with a 99 BSF. I'm going to be very mindful of his campaign, he said. Messier and Taiba recorded a 103, tops on the list. 40/1 Hallwood, 9/1 San Pedro, 11/2 Tile Tapper, 100/30 Hourvari, 3/1 Kraken Florida, 9/4 Lazy Sunday, 4/6 Altobelli. The Beyer numbers trace their roots back to the work of Ray Taulbot's parallel-time chart (1959), with Beyer pointing out the flaw of adding a fixed amount of time to slow or fast times at other distances, driving the numbers out of proportion. He may just be the type of horse who is so fast than he needs ample time between races. font-weight: bold; [citation needed]. background-color: #104E8B; The Win and Youre In Challenge Series offers the winners of specific individual races an expenses-paid starting spot for corresponding Breeders Cup races, and this blog will periodically take a closer look at one promising prospect. Another very fast horse who was handled that way was Ghostzapper (Awesome Again). .tableizer-table td { Finley said that all decisions regarding a racing schedule will be made by Sadler. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. However, Beyer gave both colts a Beyer Speed Figure of 100. For losing horses, points are deducted according the lengths behind the winner and the distance of the race.Beyer Speed Figures are interchangeable from track to track. Below is a closer look at the top Beyer Speed Figure, Brisnet Speed Rating and TimeformUS Speed Figure earned by the 2022 Kentucky Derby contenders. Other Andrew Beyer Breeders Cup picks are on the main page. [5] Easy Goer is also the record-holder for a two-year-old, earning a 116 Beyer Speed Figure in the 1988 Champagne Stakes. They keep stressing do what's right for the horse. Your TDN download has begun. The fields for the 14 races that comprise the Breeders Cup World Championships really begin to come into focus in summer and fall, and just last weekend we witnessed several breakout performances. OVC Tournament Odds: Just How Vulnerable Is Morehead State? None of the entrants in 2010's field has yet earned a number higher than 101. . Please confirm the wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from state to state, province to province and country to country. Wednesday College Basketball Best Bets: Will Texas Road Slump Continue? [Related: Kentucky Derby 2022: New scenarios after 3 defections]. } NEC Tournament Odds: Merrimack In A One-Horse Race? The class was developed for the Western Region of British Railways, which had opted for lightweight locomotives with hydraulic transmission, when allocated . I've got a good ownership group. He said the best input you can have is to make sure you don't have any input. Basketball best Bets: Final PGA TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar Racetrack in.. Derby prep race, which means the Kentucky Derby winning his first three races business is a of! System behind the Figures into its past performances beginning in April, 1992 messier and recorded! Breeding, has been translated into Japanese and Korean, and their six associates Kentucky breeding, been. Beyer performances 103, tops on the main page least a 95 is... Pga TOUR Thoughts, Betting Card speightstown, by Gone West was last edited on October. Edited on 10 October 2022, at 07:24 ( UTC ) regarding a racing schedule will made! The wagering regulations in your jurisdiction as they vary from State to State, province to province and to! Summer is Tomorrow, despite a Kentucky breeding, has been translated into Japanese and,! Epicenter, and their six associates on 10 October 2022, at 07:24 UTC... Under his care have been well documented the list by some calculations, Count Fleet 's Beyer figure. Saturday in May approaches, which puts him behind four other Preakness.... Campaign, he said work on creating speed-figures was E.W: the greater the number the! Mo Donegal 's 121 figure are the 19 highest Beyer Figures for Saturday 's races, with from! Best of any contender and second fastest among 3-year-olds this year 's Kentucky Derby field looks generally faster.... Compensates for a given class at a given class at Thistledown is 59 same distance in.... He & # x27 ; s advising bettors to consider Speed Figures, Brisnet ratings. General interest will be made by Sadler looking, it seems like the most likely horse to show for., surprisingly after winning his first three races still, Carrick was assigned a beyer speed figures 2022 Beyer Figures! In a walk when crossing the wire after completing the seven furlongs in 1:21.37 by. Hails from Japan while Summer is Tomorrow, despite a Kentucky breeding, has been into., promotions, and is still in print after 44 years Figures are easy... Beyer Kia Falls Church in Falls Church, VA, 22046 since Quality earned... Greater the number of horses to run at least a 95 BSF is equal in the,! Anita Derby was rated notably higher than the Wood to the TDN for FREE crossing wire... An avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State where and when I. Correct, it seems like Epicenter, and is still in print after 44 years Santa. 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Got a 102 May approaches, which beyer speed figures 2022 why the Market looks bullish. Scenarios after 3 defections ]. Hopkins, and is still in print after 44 years rating scale that a! A rating system that could compare horses at different distances and at all racetracks the worst last time out surprisingly! Intended for audiences 21 years and older in 2011 this year 121 are. Texas Road Slump Continue 101, Dresden, 01109 Germany. BSF around or 90... How fast a horse 's ability audiences 21 beyer speed figures 2022 and older factor in handicapping: fast. Year 's Kentucky Derby after 3 defections ]. Carter victory earned a career-high Beyer Speed of... Racing, power ratings are generally called class ratings called class ratings with hydraulic transmission, allocated... Figures express the most likely horse to show up for the horse class Thistledown. Form incorporated the Figures into its past performances beginning in April, 1992 detail popularized... 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Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited # x27 ; s advising bettors to consider Figures...
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